India’s Equity Market Reform Article by John Echeverri-Gent

Ajay Shah has uploaded this article by John Echeverri-Gent on the Politics of market microstructure [pdf] about the reforms of the Indian equity market. It is forthcoming in a book: India's Economic Transition: The Politics of Reform, edited by Rahul Mukherji, Oxford, 2007.

Some excerpts out of the 30 odd pages:

• He examines the politics of equity market microstructure in India. It argues that officials in the Ministry of Finance generated much of the impetus for reform. Three factors motivated these officials to become agents of change. First, their experience made them acutely aware that public sector resources were inadequate to meet India’s developmental needs. Second, as the 1990s progressed they were increasingly aware of the global best practices that developedin the wake of technological change. Finally, the legal infrastructure that regulated Indian equity markets provided them tremendous authority over the exchanges. Under the Securities Contracts (Regulation Act) 1956, the Ministry of Finance enjoyed the power to grant or withdraw recognition to any stock exchange. It also had the power to direct the exchanges to make or amend their rules, supersede the governing body of any exchange, and suspend the business of an exchange.
• By 2001, reforms brought India up to par with the global standards for virtually every aspect of its equity market microstructure. The ‘open outcry’system that restricted trading to the floors of stock exchanges in India’s metropolises was replaced by screen-based, electronic order-book systems that instantaneously linked traders across the country through the world’s first satellite trading system. Virtually all trading took place on a dematerialized basis through a central depository. The deeply flawed account period settlement system was replaced by a T+2 rolling settlement that is one of the most efficient systems in the world, and badla or carry-forward trading gave way to a rapidly developing derivatives market. As a consequence of these changes, the total value of transactions in securities has grown dramatically over the last ten years from Rs 1.7 billion in 1994–5 to Rs 50.8 billion in 2003–4.
• All this is not to suggest that no problems remain. The micromarket structure of the primary market (despite its revival since 2003–4, in part because of the introduction of a screen-based book-building system) is still in need of reform. The share of household savings invested in securities is small and has declined since the early 1990s. The mutual fund industry remains underdeveloped, and the regulatory capacity of SEBI needs enhancement.
• Nonetheless, the transformation of Indian equity markets is a remarkably successful chapter in the story of India’s economic reform.Three factors help to explain this success. First, technological change in the form of electronic trading systems and the development of new financialproducts created substantial opportunity costs to maintaining the status quo. Second, in the context of India’s balance of payments crisis in 1991, officials in the Ministry of Finance were motivated by their growing awareness of global best practices to use their authority to modernize India’s capital market. Finally,India’s politicians and reformers in the Ministry of Finance had a relatively low ‘political cost-benefit ratio’ for reforming equity markets.
  

Go read the entire article here

The Elliott Wave Principle

This is content from ElliottWave and I have their permission to reproduce it here. It's quite informative. Read on....

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott, a corporate accountant by profession, studied price movements in the financial markets and observed that certain patterns repeat themselves. He offered proof of his discovery by making astonishingly accurate stock market forecasts. What appears random and unrelated, Elliott said, will actually trace out a recognizable pattern once you learn what to look for. Elliott called his discovery "The Elliott Wave Principle," and its implications were huge. He had identified the common link that drives the trends in human affairs, from financial markets to fashion, from politics to popular culture.

Robert Prechter, Jr., president of Elliott Wave International, resurrected the Wave Principle from near obscurity in 1976 when he discovered the complete body of R.N. Elliott's work in the New York Library. Robert Prechter, Jr. and A.J. Frost published Elliott Wave Principle in 1978. The book received enthusiastic reviews and became a Wall Street bestseller. In Elliott Wave Principle, Prechter and Frost's forecast called for a roaring bull market in the 1980s, to be followed by a record bear market. Needless to say, knowledge of the Wave Principle among private and professional investors grew dramatically in the 1980s.

When investors and traders first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, there are several reactions:
Disbelief – that markets are patterned and largely predictable by technical analysis alone
Joyous “irrational exuberance” – at having found a “crystal ball” to foretell the future
And finally the correct, and useful response – “Wow, here is a valuable new tool I should learn to use.”

Just like any system or structure found in nature, the closer you look at wave patterns, the more structured complexity you see. It is structured, because nature’s patterns build on themselves, creating similar forms at progressively larger sizes. You can see these fractal patterns in botany, geography, physiology, and the things humans create, like roads, residential subdivisions… and – as recent discoveries have confirmed – in market prices.

Natural systems, including Elliott wave patterns in market charts, “grow” through time, and their forms are defined by interruptions to that growth.

Here's what is meant by that. When your hands formed in the womb, they first looked like round paddles growing equally in all directions. Then, in the places between your fingers, cells ceased growing or died, and growth was directed to the five digits. This structured progress and regress is essential to all forms of growth. That this “punctuated growth” appears in market data is only natural – as Robert Prechter, Jr., the world's foremost Elliott wave expert and president of Elliott Wave International, says, “Everything that thrives must have setbacks.”
The first step in Elliott wave analysis is identifying patterns in market prices. At their core, wave patterns are simple; there are only two of them: “impulse waves,” and “corrective waves.”
Impulse waves are composed of five sub-waves and move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size (labeled as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Impulse waves are called so because they powerfully impel the market.

A corrective wave follows, composed of three sub-waves, and it moves against the trend of the next larger size (labeled as a, b, c). Corrective waves accomplish only a partial retracement, or "correction," of the progress achieved by any preceding impulse wave.

As the figure to the right shows, one complete Elliott wave consists of eight waves and two phases: five-wave impulse phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by numbers, and the three-wave corrective phase, whose sub-waves are denoted by letters.

What R.N. Elliott set out to describe using the Elliott Wave Principle was how the market actually behaves. There are a number of specific variations on the underlying theme, which Elliott meticulously described and illustrated. He also noted the important fact that each pattern has identifiable requirements as well as tendencies. From these observations, he was able to formulate numerous rules and guidelines for proper wave identification. A thorough knowledge of such details is necessary to understand what the markets can do, and at least as important, what it does not do.

You have only just begun to learn the power and complexity of the Elliott Wave Principle. So, don't let your Elliott wave education end here. Join Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI and access the Basic Tutorial: 10 lessons on The Elliott Wave Principle and learn how to use this valuable tool in your own trading and investing.

India Moving Up The Value Chain: BPO to KPO

In a special report titled, "What's next for India: Beyond the Back Office", experts from Wharton and BCG take a look at India's move up the value chain from BPO to KPO as well as global manufacturing.

It's time to build on our strengths of a vast domestic market and low cost and skilled labour force. But time also to look at our weaknesses of power and infrastructure and remedy them asap.


Reviews, Tips, Calculators with an Indian perspective.

Playing the Long Game: Global Asset Management

Here is a BCG publication on the subject of Financial Services. It's by Philippe Morel, Frans Blom, Nick Gardiner, James Geddes, Andy Maguire, Monish Kumar.

Asset managers must take forceful initiatives to improve the integrity of their businesses if they hope to remain competitive as industry dynamics shift in step with demographic patterns. BCG's third report on the global asset management industry examines current trends, offers a detailed analysis of the market for retirement assets, and outlines specific actions that asset managers can take if they seek both to raise profitability and achieve a leadership position in the industry.

To view the publication, click on this link:

http://www.bcg.com/publications/publications_search_results.jsp?PUBID=2081